Signal Observatory // Monitoring Station

10Y Treasury Yield

treasury-10y // %

normaldrift (12w)
AI Interpretation

The US 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.285%, slightly above the expected 4.131% but still within its normal short-term range of 3.83–4.44%. However, the yield has drifted notably above its long-term band of 3.91–4.31%, indicating it has moved higher than its typical historical range and suggests yields have been trending upward over a longer period. This matters because higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs across the economy—from mortgages and auto loans to corporate debt—and typically reflect expectations of higher interest rates or inflation concerns among bond investors.

US 10-year Treasury yield via Yahoo Finance

apiEvery 5 min
4-Week Baseline
Score
+0.7
Expected
4.1
Current
4.3
Band: 3.84.5
12-Week Baseline
Score
+1.7
Expected
4.1
Current
4.3
Band: 3.94.3
Updated 28d ago
Recent Values
4w 12w
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Mon 23Wed 25Fri 27Tue 3Thu 5Mon 9Wed 11Fri 13Tue 17Thu 19Mar 2026
Event Timeline
29d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.29%, within normal range

Value: 4.3Expected: 4.1
+1.2
29d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.26%, 18bps above expected 4.08%

Value: 4.3Expected: 4.1
+1.8
29d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.26%, within normal range

Value: 4.3Expected: 4.1
+1.0
29d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.26%, 18bps above expected 4.08%

Value: 4.3Expected: 4.1
+1.8
29d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.26%, within normal range

Value: 4.3Expected: 4.1
+1.0
29d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.24%, 15bps above expected 4.08%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
29d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.22%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
29d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, 16bps above expected 4.07%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.6
29d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+0.7
29d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, 15bps above expected 4.07%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
29d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.22%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
29d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, 16bps above expected 4.07%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.6
29d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
29d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, 15bps above expected 4.08%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
29d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
29d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, 15bps above expected 4.08%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
29d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
29d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, 15bps above expected 4.08%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
30d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.22%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
30d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, 16bps above expected 4.07%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.6
30d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+0.9
30d ago·normaldrift

The 10Y Treasury yield drifted to 4.214%, exceeding the expected 4.056% forecast with a short-term score of 1.58, though it remains within both the short-term band (3.86-4.26%) and long-term band (3.91-4.31%). The shift from normal to drift status reflects above-consensus readings, but the yield is still near the upper edge of normal trading ranges with no long-term concern indicated by the 1.06 long-term score.

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.6
31d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.20%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.2
31d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.21%, 15bps above expected 4.05%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
31d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.20%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
31d ago·normaldrift

The 10Y Treasury yield drifted higher to 4.202%, exceeding the expected 4.052% forecast and pushing above the midpoint of its short-term 3.85–4.25% band, though it remains comfortably within the longer-term 3.90–4.30% range. The shift from normal to short-term drift (score 1.50) suggests modest upward pressure, likely reflecting stronger-than-expected economic data or inflation concerns, but lacks conviction given the minimal daily data available.

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.5
31d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.22%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.3
31d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.22%, 17bps above expected 4.05%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.7
31d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.22%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.2
31d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.22%, 16bps above expected 4.06%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.6
31d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.22%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.3
31d ago·normaldrift

The 10Y Treasury yield drifted above expectations to 4.222%, exceeding the 4.056% forecast with a short-term score of 1.66, though it remains within the normal long-term band of 3.90–4.30%. This represents a shift from the prior normal status, indicating modest upward pressure that warrants monitoring for potential breakout beyond the 4.26% short-term ceiling.

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.7
31d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.22%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.3
31d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, 17bps above expected 4.06%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.7
31d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.4
31d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, 17bps above expected 4.06%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.7
31d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.4
31d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, 17bps above expected 4.05%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.7
31d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.3
31d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.24%, 18bps above expected 4.06%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.8
31d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.3
32d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.22%, 16bps above expected 4.06%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.6
32d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, within normal range

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.4
32d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, 17bps above expected 4.06%

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.7
32d ago·driftnormal

10Y Treasury yield moved to normal status from drift, rising to 4.234% above the 4.086% expectation with a short-term score of 1.23, indicating a modest deviation within the 3.85-4.33% band. The long-term positioning remains stable at 1.40 score despite yields approaching the upper boundary of the 3.89-4.29% range.

Value: 4.2Expected: 4.1
+1.2
34d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.29%, 20bps above expected 4.09%

Value: 4.3Expected: 4.1
+2.0
34d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.29%, within normal range

Value: 4.3Expected: 4.1
+1.4
34d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.29%, 20bps above expected 4.09%

Value: 4.3Expected: 4.1
+2.0
34d ago·driftnormal

10-year Treasury yield at 4.29%, within normal range

Value: 4.3Expected: 4.1
+1.3
34d ago·normaldrift

10-year Treasury yield at 4.29%, 20bps above expected 4.08%

Value: 4.3Expected: 4.1
+2.0