Signal Observatory // Monitoring Station

Baltic Dry Shipping

baltic-dry // USD

anomalydrift (12w)
AI Interpretation

The Baltic Dry shipping index, which tracks the cost of moving raw materials like iron ore and grain across oceans, is currently trading at $10.49—about 10% below its expected level and outside its normal short-term range. This indicates tighter shipping capacity or weaker demand for bulk commodities right now, a shift that often signals either slowing global trade or overcapacity in the shipping market. The persistent downward drift over the longer term suggests this isn't just a brief blip but reflects underlying pressure on the shipping industry that's worth monitoring as a potential early warning for broader economic slowdown, since companies typically cut back on bulk material shipments when growth stalls.

Baltic Dry shipping ETF (BDRY) — global supply chain stress via Yahoo Finance

apiEvery 1 hour
4-Week Baseline
Score
-3.4
Expected
$12 USD
Current
$11 USD
Band: $11 USD$12 USD
12-Week Baseline
Score
-2.5
Expected
$12 USD
Current
$11 USD
Band: $11 USD$12 USD
Updated 22h ago
Recent Values
4w 12w
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Tue 10Thu 12Mon 16Wed 18Fri 20Tue 24Thu 26Mon 2Wed 4Fri 6Mar 2026
Event Timeline
1d ago·driftanomaly

Baltic Dry shipping ETF at $10.44 — 10.7% below expected, significant supply chain signal

Value: $10 USDExpected: $12 USD
-3.3
1d ago·anomalydrift

Baltic Dry shipping ETF at $10.45, drifting below normal shipping rates

Value: $10 USDExpected: $12 USD
-3.0
1d ago·normalanomaly

BDRY has dropped into anomaly territory at 10 USD, trading 13.4% below the 11.555 USD expected level with a concerning -4.66 score, signaling elevated global supply chain stress. Both short-term and long-term bands show the price has broken below normal ranges (10.89–12.22 and 10.93–12.38 respectively), marking a transition from normal conditions to sustained dysfunction in shipping demand.

Value: $10 USDExpected: $12 USD
-4.7
3d ago·driftnormal

Baltic Dry shipping ETF at $12.41, supply chain activity within normal range

Value: $12 USDExpected: $12 USD
+1.2
3d ago·normaldrift

BDRY has drifted above its long-term band (10.95-12.36 USD), trading at 12.51 USD with a score of 1.53, suggesting shipping costs are rising faster than the model expects, signaling potential supply chain tightening. The shift from normal status to drift indicates shipping demand or vessel scarcity pressures are building, though the signal remains moderate rather than critical.

Value: $13 USDExpected: $12 USD
+1.5
4d ago·driftnormal

Baltic Dry shipping ETF at $12.31, supply chain activity within normal range

Value: $12 USDExpected: $12 USD
+1.3
4d ago·normaldrift

Baltic Dry shipping ETF at $12.45, drifting above normal shipping rates

Value: $12 USDExpected: $12 USD
+2.0
19d ago·driftnormal

BDRY recovered from drift status, trading at 11.49 USD within normal parameters on both short and long-term bands (10.59–11.65), with a modest positive deviation of 0.37 USD above the 11.12 expected level and a score of 1.39 indicating stable supply chain conditions. The signal remains neutral with no significant directional momentum evident in the current readings.

Value: $11 USDExpected: $11 USD
+1.4
21d ago·normaldrift

BDRY drifted above its expected value of 11.12 USD to 11.546 USD with a modest positive score of 1.60, remaining within both short and long-term bands of 10.59-11.65 USD. This represents a minor shift from normal status, suggesting slight upward pressure in global shipping costs but no material supply chain stress signal yet.

Value: $12 USDExpected: $11 USD
+1.6
22d ago·driftnormal

BDRY recovered from drift status to normal, trading at 11.48 USD slightly above the 11.03 USD expectation with a score of 1.41, remaining comfortably within its 10.39-11.67 USD band across both timeframes. The signal suggests stabilizing supply chain conditions after the previous downward drift.

Value: $11 USDExpected: $11 USD
+1.4
22d ago·normaldrift

BDRY drifted above its expected level of 10.98 USD to 11.45 USD with a weak score of 1.81, placing it at the upper edge of its 10.46–11.50 USD band, signaling modest supply chain tightness that warrants monitoring but lacks conviction for a strong directional move.

Value: $11 USDExpected: $11 USD
+1.8
23d ago·driftnormal

BDRY recovered to 11.19 USD, moving above the expected 10.95 USD level and stabilizing within normal bands (10.45–11.45 USD), with score climbing to 0.95 from prior drift status. The signal indicates global supply chain stress has normalized on both timeframes with no material divergence between short and long-term parameters.

Value: $11 USDExpected: $11 USD
+1.0
23d ago·normaldrift

BDRY drifted above its expected value of 10.95 USD to 11.34 USD, triggering a drift signal (score 1.55) in both short and long-term timeframes while remaining within its 10.45–11.45 USD band. The transition from normal to drift suggests modest upward pressure on shipping costs, indicating a slight tightening in global supply chain conditions, though the signal remains relatively weak and contained within established ranges.

Value: $11 USDExpected: $11 USD
+1.5
23d ago·driftnormal

BDRY recovered to 11.30 USD, moving above the expected 10.95 USD and re-entering normal status across both timeframes with a low score of 1.39, indicating stabilization within the 10.45–11.45 USD band after a previous drift signal. The transition reflects easing global supply chain stress in the shipping sector.

Value: $11 USDExpected: $11 USD
+1.4
24d ago·normaldrift

BDRY has drifted above its expected value of 10.95 USD to 11.528 USD, breaching the upper boundary of both short and long-term bands (10.51–11.39 USD) with a modest score of 2.64, signaling modest supply chain tightening. The transition from normal to drift status reflects emerging pressure in global shipping costs, though the low score suggests this remains within manageable range.

Value: $12 USDExpected: $11 USD
+2.6
26d ago·driftnormal

BDRY recovered from drift status to normal at 10.74 USD, trading slightly above the 10.65 USD expectation with a neutral 0.42 score, indicating stable positioning within the 10.22–11.08 USD band with no meaningful momentum shift in either direction.

Value: $11 USDExpected: $11 USD
+0.4
26d ago·normaldrift

BDRY drifted above its 10.22-11.08 USD band to 11 USD (score 1.64), signaling emerging supply chain stress despite remaining near the short and long-term band ceiling. The shift from normal status indicates early tightening in global shipping capacity, though the move is modest and bands remain identical across timeframes.

Value: $11 USDExpected: $11 USD
+1.6