Signal Observatory // Monitoring Station

Global Conflict Volume

gdelt-conflict // vol

normaldrift (12w)
AI Interpretation

Global conflict coverage in media is currently running slightly below what's typically expected at this time, at 22.76 units of volume intensity compared to an anticipated 23.54. This represents a minor dip rather than any unusual spike — the reading sits comfortably within the normal short-term range of 14.38 to 32.70 units. However, there's a longer-term pattern worth noting: over weeks or months, conflict media volume has drifted notably lower than its typical range of 12.35 to 20.76 units, suggesting that media reporting on global conflicts has been gradually declining. The seven-day average sits around 23.55, and the general trend in recent data points continues downward, though this hasn't yet crossed into any alarm threshold for immediate or short-term concern.

4-Week Baseline
Score
-0.2
Expected
23.5
Current
22.8
Band: 14.432.7
12-Week Baseline
Score
+2.9
Expected
16.6
Current
22.8
Band: 12.320.8
Updated 74d ago
Recent Values
4w 12w
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Jan 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026
Event Timeline
78d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume at 22.2, within normal range

Value: 22.2Expected: 29.2
-0.7
78d ago·normalanomaly

Global conflict media volume has dropped to 22.03, falling 4.8 points below the 26.85 expected level and breaching the short-term band (24.87–28.83), marking a shift from normal to short-term anomaly despite a long-term upward drift above the 12.53–20.53 band. The 7-day average of 23.76 and downward trend suggest a temporary de-escalation in conflict-related reporting intensity.

Value: 22.0Expected: 26.8
-4.9
79d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume at 22.6, within normal range

Value: 22.6Expected: 30.0
-1.0
79d ago·normalanomaly

Conflict volume at 23.9 — 21% subdued, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 23.9Expected: 30.3
-4.4
79d ago·driftnormal

Global conflict media volume dropped to 22.57, down 24.8% from the expected 30.07 baseline, pushing the short-term score to -0.67 and triggering a shift from drift to normal status. However, the long-term anomaly score of 3.05 persists as volume remains elevated above the 12.57–20.49 historical band despite the falling trend.

Value: 22.6Expected: 30.1
-0.7
79d ago·normaldrift

Conflict volume at 79.0, elevated vs expected 44.6

Value: 79.0Expected: 44.6
+1.6
80d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume surged to 25.98, exceeding the 7-day average of 25.06 and the expected 21.01 baseline, triggering a long-term anomaly flag (score 4.77) despite remaining within short-term bounds. The rising trend and sustained elevation above the normal long-term band of 12.57–20.49 indicates a persistent spike in conflict-related reporting intensity rather than a transient event.

Value: 26.0Expected: 21.0
+0.6
80d ago·normalanomaly

Conflict volume at 25.8 — 59% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 25.8Expected: 16.2
+10.0
81d ago·driftnormal

Global conflict media volume held steady at 24.32 against expectations with zero deviation, maintaining normal short-term status despite flagging a long-term anomaly with a 4.17 score as the metric sits above the 12.77-20.26 band. The falling 7-day average of 25.34 and transition from prior drift status suggest elevated conflict coverage may be normalizing but remains persistently high relative to historical baselines.

Value: 24.3Expected: 24.3
0.0
82d ago·normaldrift

Conflict volume at 25.1, elevated vs expected 20.1

Value: 25.1Expected: 20.1
+1.6
82d ago·driftnormal

Global conflict media volume at 25.9, within normal range

Value: 25.9Expected: 24.5
+1.0
82d ago·normaldrift

Global conflict media volume spiked to 29.90, nearly 82% above the 16.41 expected value and breaking both short-term (7.41-25.41) and long-term (12.77-20.26) bands, triggering a drift alert with a long-term anomaly score of 7.14 and a rising 7-day average of 26.14. This represents a sustained elevation in conflict-related media intensity rather than a transient spike.

Value: 29.9Expected: 16.4
+3.0
82d ago·driftnormal

Global conflict media volume at 23.3, within normal range

Value: 23.3Expected: 23.3
0.0
82d ago·normaldrift

Conflict volume at 23.3, elevated vs expected 15.7

Value: 23.3Expected: 15.7
+2.8
83d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume at 23.6, within normal range

Value: 23.6Expected: 20.9
+0.4
83d ago·driftanomaly

Global conflict media volume spiked to 23.84, exceeding both short-term (13.69-15.27) and long-term (12.77-20.26) bands with a perfect anomaly score of 10.00, marking an upgrade from drift status despite a falling 7-day trend averaging 25.44. The 64% overshoot versus expected 14.48 suggests a significant acute escalation event captured in GDELT media data on March 12, 2026.

Value: 23.8Expected: 14.5
+10.0
83d ago·normaldrift

Conflict volume at 41.2, elevated vs expected 19.8

Value: 41.2Expected: 19.8
+2.7
84d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume at 30.3, within normal range

Value: 30.3Expected: 26.2
+0.3
84d ago·normalanomaly

Global conflict media volume spiked to 29.41, significantly exceeding both short-term (13.82–20.78) and long-term (12.83–20.20) bands with a score of 6.95, marking a shift from normal to anomaly status. The 7-day average of 26.66 and rising trend suggest sustained elevated conflict reporting rather than a momentary spike.

Value: 29.4Expected: 17.3
+7.0
85d ago·driftnormal

Global conflict media volume at 26.7, within normal range

Value: 26.7Expected: 21.7
+0.6
85d ago·normaldrift

Conflict volume at 27.6, elevated vs expected 16.9

Value: 27.6Expected: 16.9
+2.9
87d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume at 27.3, within normal range

Value: 27.3Expected: 21.9
+0.6
87d ago·normalanomaly

Conflict volume at 27.6 — 71% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 27.6Expected: 16.1
+10.0
87d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume at 27.6, within normal range

Value: 27.6Expected: 22.4
+0.6
87d ago·normalanomaly

Conflict volume at 27.9 — 56% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 27.9Expected: 17.8
+3.7
87d ago·driftnormal

Global conflict media volume jumped to 31.58, exceeding short-term expectations of 21.55 by 47% with a normalized score of 1.18, shifting from drift to normal in the immediate term yet remaining elevated relative to the long-term band (12.90–19.86), reflecting a sustained rising trend over 7 days averaging 28.51 that signals persistent geopolitical tension intensity above historical norms.

Value: 31.6Expected: 21.6
+1.2
88d ago·anomalydrift

Conflict volume at 27.9, elevated vs expected 19.6

Value: 27.9Expected: 19.6
+2.8
88d ago·driftanomaly

Global conflict media volume spiked to 25.59 against an expected 16.89, exceeding both short-term (12.62–21.15) and long-term (12.90–19.86) bands with a score of 4.08, marking an escalation from prior drift status despite a falling 7-day trend averaging 27.65. The long-term anomaly score of 5.29 suggests sustained elevation warranting monitoring for geopolitical developments.

Value: 25.6Expected: 16.9
+4.1
88d ago·normaldrift

Conflict volume at 75.6, elevated vs expected 29.1

Value: 75.6Expected: 29.1
+2.6
88d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume stands at 28.94, up 26% from expected 22.90, triggering a short-term normal reading but remaining anomalously elevated long-term (score 7.21, well above the 12.90–19.86 band). The seven-day average of 30.31 confirms sustained intensity despite a falling trend, suggesting conflict reporting remains persistently high relative to historical baseline.

Value: 28.9Expected: 22.9
+0.8
89d ago·normalanomaly

Conflict volume at 24.3 — 42% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 24.3Expected: 17.1
+3.4
89d ago·driftnormal

Global conflict media volume at 23.9, within normal range

Value: 23.9Expected: 23.6
+0.3
89d ago·normaldrift

Global conflict media volume spiked to 22.94, well above the expected 15.25 and breaching the long-term band (12.90–19.86), marking a shift from normal to drift status with a notable long-term anomaly score of 3.77. Despite a falling 7-day trend averaging 29.45, the current elevated level suggests sustained heightened conflict coverage that warrants monitoring for escalation signals.

Value: 22.9Expected: 15.3
+1.6
89d ago·driftnormal

Global conflict media volume at 27.4, within normal range

Value: 27.4Expected: 24.1
+0.7
89d ago·anomalydrift

Conflict volume at 41.2, elevated vs expected 19.9

Value: 41.2Expected: 19.9
+2.7
89d ago·normalanomaly

Conflict volume at 39.0 — 118% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 39.0Expected: 17.9
+5.1
90d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume remains elevated at 28.75, well above the long-term band (12.98–19.66) and triggering a long-term anomaly flag (score 7.44), though the falling 7-day trend (28.99) suggests the spike is cooling. The short-term classification holds normal as the current value stays within the acceptable 5.13–38.11 range, indicating the intensity surge, while significant, hasn't yet stabilized into a sustained new baseline.

Value: 28.8Expected: 21.6
+0.9
90d ago·normalanomaly

Conflict volume at 34.7 — 88% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 34.7Expected: 18.4
+4.1
90d ago·driftnormal

Global conflict media volume at 29.5, within normal range

Value: 29.5Expected: 25.9
+0.3
90d ago·normaldrift

Conflict volume at 27.9, elevated vs expected 17.3

Value: 27.9Expected: 17.3
+2.4
91d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume at 27.1, within normal range

Value: 27.1Expected: 21.8
+0.6
91d ago·normalanomaly

Conflict volume at 27.0 — 83% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 27.0Expected: 14.8
+7.7
91d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume at 26.5, within normal range

Value: 26.5Expected: 17.3
+1.4
91d ago·normalanomaly

Global conflict media volume spiked to 33.68, more than double the expected 14.96, triggering dual anomalies with a maximum score of 10.00—the sharp 125% overshoot well exceeds both short-term (11.75–18.16) and long-term (12.98–19.66) bands, marking a transition from normal status with an accelerating 7-day average of 28.06 suggesting sustained elevated intensity.

Value: 33.7Expected: 15.0
+10.0
91d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume at 27.8, within normal range

Value: 27.8Expected: 23.9
+0.6
91d ago·normalanomaly

Conflict volume at 29.2 — 74% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 29.2Expected: 16.8
+3.3
92d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume at 29.2, within normal range

Value: 29.2Expected: 29.2
0.0
92d ago·normalanomaly

Conflict volume at 28.0 — 69% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 28.0Expected: 16.5
+3.4
92d ago·anomalynormal

Global conflict media volume at 28.0, within normal range

Value: 28.0Expected: 20.8
+0.3
92d ago·normalanomaly

Conflict volume at 36.2 — 119% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 36.2Expected: 16.5
+10.0