Signal Observatory // Monitoring Station

Global Conflict Volume

gdelt-conflict // vol

normaldrift (12w)
AI Interpretation

Global conflict coverage in media is currently running slightly below what's typically expected at this time, at 22.76 units of volume intensity compared to an anticipated 23.54. This represents a minor dip rather than any unusual spike — the reading sits comfortably within the normal short-term range of 14.38 to 32.70 units. However, there's a longer-term pattern worth noting: over weeks or months, conflict media volume has drifted notably lower than its typical range of 12.35 to 20.76 units, suggesting that media reporting on global conflicts has been gradually declining. The seven-day average sits around 23.55, and the general trend in recent data points continues downward, though this hasn't yet crossed into any alarm threshold for immediate or short-term concern.

4-Week Baseline
Score
-0.2
Expected
23.5
Current
22.8
Band: 14.4 — 32.7
12-Week Baseline
Score
+2.9
Expected
16.6
Current
22.8
Band: 12.3 — 20.8
Updated 221d ago
Recent Values
4w 12w
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Jan 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026
Event Timeline
224d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume at 22.2, within normal range

Value: 22.2Expected: 29.2
-0.7
224d ago·normal→anomaly

Global conflict media volume has dropped to 22.03, falling 4.8 points below the 26.85 expected level and breaching the short-term band (24.87–28.83), marking a shift from normal to short-term anomaly despite a long-term upward drift above the 12.53–20.53 band. The 7-day average of 23.76 and downward trend suggest a temporary de-escalation in conflict-related reporting intensity.

Value: 22.0Expected: 26.8
-4.9
225d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume at 22.6, within normal range

Value: 22.6Expected: 30.0
-1.0
225d ago·normal→anomaly

Conflict volume at 23.9 — 21% subdued, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 23.9Expected: 30.3
-4.4
225d ago·drift→normal

Global conflict media volume dropped to 22.57, down 24.8% from the expected 30.07 baseline, pushing the short-term score to -0.67 and triggering a shift from drift to normal status. However, the long-term anomaly score of 3.05 persists as volume remains elevated above the 12.57–20.49 historical band despite the falling trend.

Value: 22.6Expected: 30.1
-0.7
225d ago·normal→drift

Conflict volume at 79.0, elevated vs expected 44.6

Value: 79.0Expected: 44.6
+1.6
226d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume surged to 25.98, exceeding the 7-day average of 25.06 and the expected 21.01 baseline, triggering a long-term anomaly flag (score 4.77) despite remaining within short-term bounds. The rising trend and sustained elevation above the normal long-term band of 12.57–20.49 indicates a persistent spike in conflict-related reporting intensity rather than a transient event.

Value: 26.0Expected: 21.0
+0.6
226d ago·normal→anomaly

Conflict volume at 25.8 — 59% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 25.8Expected: 16.2
+10.0
228d ago·drift→normal

Global conflict media volume held steady at 24.32 against expectations with zero deviation, maintaining normal short-term status despite flagging a long-term anomaly with a 4.17 score as the metric sits above the 12.77-20.26 band. The falling 7-day average of 25.34 and transition from prior drift status suggest elevated conflict coverage may be normalizing but remains persistently high relative to historical baselines.

Value: 24.3Expected: 24.3
0.0
228d ago·normal→drift

Conflict volume at 25.1, elevated vs expected 20.1

Value: 25.1Expected: 20.1
+1.6
228d ago·drift→normal

Global conflict media volume at 25.9, within normal range

Value: 25.9Expected: 24.5
+1.0
228d ago·normal→drift

Global conflict media volume spiked to 29.90, nearly 82% above the 16.41 expected value and breaking both short-term (7.41-25.41) and long-term (12.77-20.26) bands, triggering a drift alert with a long-term anomaly score of 7.14 and a rising 7-day average of 26.14. This represents a sustained elevation in conflict-related media intensity rather than a transient spike.

Value: 29.9Expected: 16.4
+3.0
228d ago·drift→normal

Global conflict media volume at 23.3, within normal range

Value: 23.3Expected: 23.3
0.0
228d ago·normal→drift

Conflict volume at 23.3, elevated vs expected 15.7

Value: 23.3Expected: 15.7
+2.8
229d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume at 23.6, within normal range

Value: 23.6Expected: 20.9
+0.4
229d ago·drift→anomaly

Global conflict media volume spiked to 23.84, exceeding both short-term (13.69-15.27) and long-term (12.77-20.26) bands with a perfect anomaly score of 10.00, marking an upgrade from drift status despite a falling 7-day trend averaging 25.44. The 64% overshoot versus expected 14.48 suggests a significant acute escalation event captured in GDELT media data on March 12, 2026.

Value: 23.8Expected: 14.5
+10.0
229d ago·normal→drift

Conflict volume at 41.2, elevated vs expected 19.8

Value: 41.2Expected: 19.8
+2.7
230d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume at 30.3, within normal range

Value: 30.3Expected: 26.2
+0.3
230d ago·normal→anomaly

Global conflict media volume spiked to 29.41, significantly exceeding both short-term (13.82–20.78) and long-term (12.83–20.20) bands with a score of 6.95, marking a shift from normal to anomaly status. The 7-day average of 26.66 and rising trend suggest sustained elevated conflict reporting rather than a momentary spike.

Value: 29.4Expected: 17.3
+7.0
231d ago·drift→normal

Global conflict media volume at 26.7, within normal range

Value: 26.7Expected: 21.7
+0.6
231d ago·normal→drift

Conflict volume at 27.6, elevated vs expected 16.9

Value: 27.6Expected: 16.9
+2.9
233d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume at 27.3, within normal range

Value: 27.3Expected: 21.9
+0.6
233d ago·normal→anomaly

Conflict volume at 27.6 — 71% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 27.6Expected: 16.1
+10.0
233d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume at 27.6, within normal range

Value: 27.6Expected: 22.4
+0.6
234d ago·normal→anomaly

Conflict volume at 27.9 — 56% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 27.9Expected: 17.8
+3.7
234d ago·drift→normal

Global conflict media volume jumped to 31.58, exceeding short-term expectations of 21.55 by 47% with a normalized score of 1.18, shifting from drift to normal in the immediate term yet remaining elevated relative to the long-term band (12.90–19.86), reflecting a sustained rising trend over 7 days averaging 28.51 that signals persistent geopolitical tension intensity above historical norms.

Value: 31.6Expected: 21.6
+1.2
234d ago·anomaly→drift

Conflict volume at 27.9, elevated vs expected 19.6

Value: 27.9Expected: 19.6
+2.8
234d ago·drift→anomaly

Global conflict media volume spiked to 25.59 against an expected 16.89, exceeding both short-term (12.62–21.15) and long-term (12.90–19.86) bands with a score of 4.08, marking an escalation from prior drift status despite a falling 7-day trend averaging 27.65. The long-term anomaly score of 5.29 suggests sustained elevation warranting monitoring for geopolitical developments.

Value: 25.6Expected: 16.9
+4.1
234d ago·normal→drift

Conflict volume at 75.6, elevated vs expected 29.1

Value: 75.6Expected: 29.1
+2.6
235d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume stands at 28.94, up 26% from expected 22.90, triggering a short-term normal reading but remaining anomalously elevated long-term (score 7.21, well above the 12.90–19.86 band). The seven-day average of 30.31 confirms sustained intensity despite a falling trend, suggesting conflict reporting remains persistently high relative to historical baseline.

Value: 28.9Expected: 22.9
+0.8
235d ago·normal→anomaly

Conflict volume at 24.3 — 42% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 24.3Expected: 17.1
+3.4
235d ago·drift→normal

Global conflict media volume at 23.9, within normal range

Value: 23.9Expected: 23.6
+0.3
235d ago·normal→drift

Global conflict media volume spiked to 22.94, well above the expected 15.25 and breaching the long-term band (12.90–19.86), marking a shift from normal to drift status with a notable long-term anomaly score of 3.77. Despite a falling 7-day trend averaging 29.45, the current elevated level suggests sustained heightened conflict coverage that warrants monitoring for escalation signals.

Value: 22.9Expected: 15.3
+1.6
235d ago·drift→normal

Global conflict media volume at 27.4, within normal range

Value: 27.4Expected: 24.1
+0.7
236d ago·anomaly→drift

Conflict volume at 41.2, elevated vs expected 19.9

Value: 41.2Expected: 19.9
+2.7
236d ago·normal→anomaly

Conflict volume at 39.0 — 118% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 39.0Expected: 17.9
+5.1
236d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume remains elevated at 28.75, well above the long-term band (12.98–19.66) and triggering a long-term anomaly flag (score 7.44), though the falling 7-day trend (28.99) suggests the spike is cooling. The short-term classification holds normal as the current value stays within the acceptable 5.13–38.11 range, indicating the intensity surge, while significant, hasn't yet stabilized into a sustained new baseline.

Value: 28.8Expected: 21.6
+0.9
236d ago·normal→anomaly

Conflict volume at 34.7 — 88% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 34.7Expected: 18.4
+4.1
237d ago·drift→normal

Global conflict media volume at 29.5, within normal range

Value: 29.5Expected: 25.9
+0.3
237d ago·normal→drift

Conflict volume at 27.9, elevated vs expected 17.3

Value: 27.9Expected: 17.3
+2.4
237d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume at 27.1, within normal range

Value: 27.1Expected: 21.8
+0.6
237d ago·normal→anomaly

Conflict volume at 27.0 — 83% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 27.0Expected: 14.8
+7.7
237d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume at 26.5, within normal range

Value: 26.5Expected: 17.3
+1.4
237d ago·normal→anomaly

Global conflict media volume spiked to 33.68, more than double the expected 14.96, triggering dual anomalies with a maximum score of 10.00—the sharp 125% overshoot well exceeds both short-term (11.75–18.16) and long-term (12.98–19.66) bands, marking a transition from normal status with an accelerating 7-day average of 28.06 suggesting sustained elevated intensity.

Value: 33.7Expected: 15.0
+10.0
237d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume at 27.8, within normal range

Value: 27.8Expected: 23.9
+0.6
238d ago·normal→anomaly

Conflict volume at 29.2 — 74% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 29.2Expected: 16.8
+3.3
238d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume at 29.2, within normal range

Value: 29.2Expected: 29.2
0.0
238d ago·normal→anomaly

Conflict volume at 28.0 — 69% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 28.0Expected: 16.5
+3.4
238d ago·anomaly→normal

Global conflict media volume at 28.0, within normal range

Value: 28.0Expected: 20.8
+0.3
238d ago·normal→anomaly

Conflict volume at 36.2 — 119% elevated, significant spike in global conflict coverage

Value: 36.2Expected: 16.5
+10.0