Signal Observatory // Monitoring Station

NOAA Weather Alerts

noaa-alerts // score

normal
AI Interpretation

The US is currently experiencing 275 active weather alerts with a weighted severity score of 520, which is moderately elevated above the typical expectation of 378.5 but falls within normal seasonal variation. This coincides with late winter/early spring transition periods when atmospheric instability commonly produces multiple simultaneous weather systems across different regions. The score remains well within historical bounds and shows no trend toward unusual extremes, so this represents routine severe weather activity rather than an exceptional weather event.

Weighted active US weather alert score via NOAA (Extreme/Severe/Moderate)

apiEvery 15 min
4-Week Baseline
Score
+0.7
Expected
418.0
Current
586.0
Band: -90.5926.5
12-Week Baseline
Score
+0.1
Expected
564.0
Current
586.0
Band: 42.11,085.875
Updated 28m ago
Recent Values
4w 12w
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Fri 13Sun 15Tue 17Thu 19Sat 21Mon 23Wed 25Fri 27Sun 1Tue 3Thu 5Sat 7Mar 2026
Event Timeline
2d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 397, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 397.0Expected: 566.0
-1.4
2d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 384, reduced vs expected 596

Value: 384.0Expected: 596.0
-1.7
2d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 396, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 396.0Expected: 578.0
-1.1
2d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 379, reduced vs expected 597

Value: 379.0Expected: 597.0
-1.5
2d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 344, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 344.0Expected: 653.0
-1.5
3d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 279, reduced vs expected 651

Value: 279.0Expected: 651.0
-1.8
3d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 250, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 250.0Expected: 599.0
-1.3
3d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 268, reduced vs expected 654

Value: 268.0Expected: 654.0
-2.0
3d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 322, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 322.0Expected: 687.0
-1.4
3d ago·anomalydrift

NOAA weather alert severity has drifted down to 302 from an expected 675, indicating temporarily reduced threat levels with a -1.88 sigma deviation, though 206 active alerts remain within normal long-term parameters. The shift from prior anomaly status suggests dangerous weather conditions have moderated in the short term, with scores now comfortably within the 277.66-1072.34 near-term band.

Value: 302.0Expected: 675.0
-1.9
3d ago·normalanomaly

NOAA alert score 176 — significantly reduced, potential major weather event across the US

Value: 176.0Expected: 716.0
-10.0
3d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 249, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 249.0Expected: 651.0
-1.5
3d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 240, reduced vs expected 700

Value: 240.0Expected: 700.0
-1.6
4d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 201, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 201.0Expected: 572.0
-1.1
4d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 192, reduced vs expected 566

Value: 192.0Expected: 566.0
-1.7
5d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 190, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 190.0Expected: 552.0
-1.1
5d ago·anomalydrift

NOAA alert score 189, reduced vs expected 608

Value: 189.0Expected: 608.0
-2.3
5d ago·driftanomaly

NOAA weather alert score dropped to 186 from expected 631, marking a significant -5.36 standard deviation anomaly with only 114 active alerts currently tracked. The reading sits well below the short-term band (465–797) and represents a sharp improvement from previous drift conditions, though long-term patterns remain moderately elevated relative to the extended band (94–1,108).

Value: 186.0Expected: 631.0
-5.4
5d ago·anomalydrift

NOAA alert score 258, reduced vs expected 658

Value: 258.0Expected: 658.0
-2.9
5d ago·driftanomaly

NOAA alert score 286 — significantly reduced, potential major weather event across the US

Value: 286.0Expected: 652.0
-3.8
5d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 284, reduced vs expected 585

Value: 284.0Expected: 585.0
-1.8
5d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 285, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 285.0Expected: 603.0
-1.5
5d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 235, reduced vs expected 616

Value: 235.0Expected: 616.0
-1.9
16d ago·anomalynormal

NOAA weighted alert score 584, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 584.0Expected: 524.0
+0.2
16d ago·normalanomaly

NOAA alert score 568 — significantly elevated, potential major weather event across the US

Value: 568.0Expected: 379.0
+10.0
17d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weather alert score rose sharply from 374 to 819 (+119% increase), moving from drift status to normal despite exceeding the upper confidence band threshold of 1,001.14. The 424 active alerts suggest a significant weather event is underway, though the signal remains classified as normal long-term with a 1.42 score, indicating this spike may be temporary or within expected seasonal variation.

Value: 819.0Expected: 374.0
+1.4
18d ago·normaldrift

NOAA weather alert score has surged to 820 from an expected baseline of 366, a 2.24x increase reflecting 415 active alerts primarily in Extreme/Severe categories and now registering drift status across both timeframes. The elevation sits well within the established band (-218.14–950.14) but represents a significant departure from normal conditions, likely driven by active severe weather systems.

Value: 820.0Expected: 366.0
+1.6
18d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weather alert score recovered to 801 from drift conditions, settling above the 365.5 expected baseline with a 1.49 multiplier indicating mild elevation. The 406 active alerts remain within normal operational bands (-217.16–948.16), suggesting consolidated severe weather activity rather than widespread extreme conditions.

Value: 801.0Expected: 365.5
+1.5
18d ago·normaldrift

NOAA weather alert score increased significantly to 802 from an expected 365, marking a 1.50x deviation above normal baseline and shifting from normal to drift status. With 405 total active alerts currently distributed across Extreme/Severe/Moderate categories, the score remains within both short and long-term bands (-216.18–946.18) but indicates elevated severe weather activity warranting monitoring.

Value: 802.0Expected: 365.0
+1.5
18d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weather alert score improved to 736 from drift conditions, now solidly within normal range with a 1.32x multiplier above the expected baseline of 361.5. The 391 active alerts remain elevated relative to expected levels, but the score's position well within the -204.85–927.85 band and recovery from previous drift status indicates weather conditions are normalizing short and long-term.

Value: 736.0Expected: 361.5
+1.3
20d ago·normaldrift

NOAA weather alert score elevated to 395 from expected 214, representing a 1.74x drift above normal with 229 active alerts across the US. The score remains within both short and long-term bands (6.44–421.56) but signals a material increase in severe weather activity requiring monitoring.

Value: 395.0Expected: 214.0
+1.7
20d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weather alert score improved from drift status to normal, declining from an implied higher level to 362 (1.46x the 213 baseline), with 197 active alerts currently within the normal band of 8.40–417.60. The transition indicates moderating severe weather conditions despite the score remaining 70% above expected levels.

Value: 362.0Expected: 213.0
+1.5
20d ago·normaldrift

NOAA weather alert score elevated to 282 from baseline 188, scoring 1.67 standard deviations above expected with 139 active alerts, representing a drift status within normal forecast bands (75.32-300.68). This short-term spike from previous normal conditions suggests a temporary increase in severe/extreme weather activity across US regions.

Value: 282.0Expected: 188.0
+1.7
22d ago·driftnormal

The NOAA weather alert score declined to 151 from an expected 307.5, pulling the signal back to normal status after drifting, with 125 active alerts currently tracking well below the 519.51 upper threshold across both time horizons. The -1.48 score indicates conditions have improved and stabilized within expected ranges for this period.

Value: 151.0Expected: 307.5
-1.5
22d ago·anomalydrift

NOAA weather alert score declined to 148 from expected 315, dropping 2.23 standard deviations below the long-term mean and signaling a shift from anomaly to drift status. With 122 active alerts, the system remains within its normal operating band (165.26–464.74) but trending toward the lower threshold, indicating a recent de-escalation of severe weather threat intensity across the US.

Value: 148.0Expected: 315.0
-2.2
22d ago·normalanomaly

Weather alert activity has declined significantly with the score dropping from an expected 317.5 to 149, representing a -4.55 standard deviation decrease and crossing below the normal band threshold of 243.37. Despite 121 active alerts remaining, the weighted severity score indicates unusually low-impact conditions compared to historical patterns for this period.

Value: 149.0Expected: 317.5
-4.5
23d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weather alert score declined to 316 from expected 389, dropping 1.30 points and shifting from drift to normal status, with 230 active alerts remaining well within the 276–502 normal band. The -16.8% deviation suggests improving conditions or reduced alert severity across US monitored regions.

Value: 316.0Expected: 389.0
-1.3
23d ago·anomalydrift

NOAA weather alert score declined to 316 from expected 389.5, marking a shift from anomaly status to drift with a -2.07 score; 230 active alerts remain within normal operational bands (318.34–460.66), indicating elevated but stabilizing severe weather activity across the US.

Value: 316.0Expected: 389.5
-2.1
23d ago·driftanomaly

NOAA weather alert score dropped to 331, falling 61 points below the expected 392 and outside both normal bands (353.45-430.55), marking a shift from drift to short and long-term anomaly status with 242 total active alerts. This decline suggests a notable reduction in severe/extreme weather threat intensity across the US.

Value: 331.0Expected: 392.0
-3.2
23d ago·anomalydrift

NOAA weather alert score increased to 440 from expected 393, crossing above the long-term band ceiling of 434.51 with a score of 2.26, indicating a short-term and long-term drift status driven by 330 active alerts primarily in extreme/severe categories. This represents an escalation from the previous anomaly status, suggesting heightened severe weather activity across US regions.

Value: 440.0Expected: 393.0
+2.3
23d ago·normalanomaly

NOAA weather alert score jumped to 437 from expected 391, exceeding both short and long-term bands (375-407), marking a transition from normal to anomaly status with a 5.88 severity score driven by 329 active alerts. This indicates a significant uptick in extreme/severe/moderate weather events across the US warranting elevated monitoring.

Value: 437.0Expected: 391.0
+5.9
23d ago·anomalynormal

NOAA weather alert score improved to 389 from previous anomaly levels, settling within normal operating bands of 363.84-394.16 with a normalized score of 1.32 and 287 active alerts across the US. The transition reflects stabilization in severe weather conditions despite remaining at the upper end of the normal range, suggesting continued moderate alert activity without the anomalous spike that triggered the previous alert.

Value: 389.0Expected: 379.0
+1.3
23d ago·normalanomaly

NOAA weather alert score jumped to 427 from expected 379, marking a 6.33 sigma anomaly across both short and long-term bands (normal range 363.84-394.16). The 313 active alerts represent a significant uptick in extreme/severe weather activity, transitioning from the previous normal status.

Value: 427.0Expected: 379.0
+6.3