Signal Observatory // Monitoring Station

NOAA Weather Alerts

noaa-alerts // score

normal
AI Interpretation

The US is currently under 192 active weather alerts, but at a lower intensity level than typical for this time period — the alert score of 419 sits noticeably below the expected 659, meaning fewer extreme or severe warnings are in effect compared to the historical average. This is considered normal for the short term, though it represents a mild decline from recent activity. Real-world impact: while severe weather remains a concern in some regions, the overall threat level across the country is currently moderate rather than elevated, which typically means fewer hurricane warnings, tornado watches, or widespread winter storm alerts than would normally be expected.

Weighted active US weather alert score via NOAA (Extreme/Severe/Moderate)

apiEvery 15 min
4-Week Baseline
Score
-0.7
Expected
533.5
Current
430.0
Band: 238.5828.5
12-Week Baseline
Score
-0.5
Expected
586.5
Current
430.0
Band: 0.91,172.127
Updated 74d ago
Recent Values
4w 12w
Scroll to zoom
Mar 2026
Event Timeline
75d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 421, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 421.0Expected: 547.0
-0.7
75d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 421, reduced vs expected 654

Value: 421.0Expected: 654.0
-1.7
75d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 420, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 420.0Expected: 532.5
-0.6
75d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 421, reduced vs expected 656

Value: 421.0Expected: 656.0
-1.5
75d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weather alert score declined to 419 from expected 659, dropping 1.47 standard deviations below normal and transitioning from drift to normal status despite 192 active alerts. Both short and long-term indicators confirm stabilization within typical ranges, suggesting reduced severity concentration across current US weather threats.

Value: 419.0Expected: 659.0
-1.5
75d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 426, reduced vs expected 674

Value: 426.0Expected: 674.0
-1.7
78d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 842, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 842.0Expected: 538.0
+1.3
78d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 930, elevated vs expected 563

Value: 930.0Expected: 563.0
+1.6
78d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 960, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 960.0Expected: 574.0
+0.9
78d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 969, elevated vs expected 563

Value: 969.0Expected: 562.5
+1.8
78d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 994, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 994.0Expected: 619.0
+1.0
78d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1016, elevated vs expected 547

Value: 1,016Expected: 546.5
+1.5
78d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 1057, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 1,057Expected: 594.0
+1.3
78d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 979, elevated vs expected 497

Value: 979.0Expected: 497.0
+1.5
78d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 984, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 984.0Expected: 610.0
+1.1
78d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 984, elevated vs expected 497

Value: 984.0Expected: 497.0
+1.6
78d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 1017, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 1,017Expected: 650.0
+1.2
78d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1124, elevated vs expected 551

Value: 1,124Expected: 551.0
+1.9
78d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 1150, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 1,150Expected: 681.0
+1.1
78d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1101, elevated vs expected 544

Value: 1,101Expected: 543.5
+1.6
79d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 1129, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 1,129Expected: 665.0
+1.2
79d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1157, elevated vs expected 531

Value: 1,157Expected: 530.5
+1.8
79d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weather alert score increased to 1148 from expected 626 (1.40x), driven by 593 active alerts now pushing into drift territory long-term (1.95 score) despite remaining within normal short-term bounds. The elevation above the long-term band ceiling of 1160.84 signals sustained severe weather activity warranting monitoring for sustained drift conditions.

Value: 1,148Expected: 626.0
+1.4
79d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1209, elevated vs expected 525

Value: 1,209Expected: 524.5
+1.8
79d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 1196, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 1,196Expected: 636.0
+1.4
79d ago·anomalydrift

NOAA alert score 1289, elevated vs expected 574

Value: 1,289Expected: 574.0
+2.2
79d ago·driftanomaly

NOAA alert score 1344 — significantly elevated, potential major weather event across the US

Value: 1,344Expected: 606.0
+3.4
79d ago·anomalydrift

NOAA weather alert score jumped to 1362 from an expected 579, marking a 2.53x spike and representing a drift status shift from the prior anomaly reading. With 670 active alerts currently exceeding both short-term upper band (1197) and long-term upper band (1151), severe weather conditions are significantly more widespread than typical seasonal patterns, though this elevated state appears to be consolidating rather than continuing to escalate.

Value: 1,362Expected: 579.0
+2.5
79d ago·driftanomaly

NOAA weather alert score jumped to 1414 from expected 603, marking a 3.75 standard deviation spike well above the short-term band (170-1036) and triggering short-term anomaly status while maintaining long-term anomaly flagging at 3.01 sigma. The 696 active alerts indicate genuine severe weather escalation across US regions.

Value: 1,414Expected: 603.0
+3.7
79d ago·anomalydrift

NOAA alert score 1318, elevated vs expected 600

Value: 1,318Expected: 599.5
+2.0
79d ago·driftanomaly

NOAA alert score 1294 — significantly elevated, potential major weather event across the US

Value: 1,294Expected: 609.0
+3.1
79d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1212, elevated vs expected 578

Value: 1,212Expected: 578.0
+2.0
79d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 1201, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 1,201Expected: 627.0
+1.4
79d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1191, elevated vs expected 598

Value: 1,191Expected: 597.5
+1.5
79d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 1173, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 1,173Expected: 601.5
+1.5
79d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1181, elevated vs expected 445

Value: 1,181Expected: 445.0
+2.3
79d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 1185, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 1,185Expected: 678.0
+1.3
79d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1182, elevated vs expected 509

Value: 1,182Expected: 509.0
+2.5
79d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weather alert score increased to 1198 from expected 678 (1.31x), signaling elevated severe weather activity with 564 total active alerts; while short-term conditions appear normal within the -118–1474 band, the long-term drift status persists as the score remains above the 96–1140 baseline band, indicating sustained above-average alert levels.

Value: 1,198Expected: 678.0
+1.3
80d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1173, elevated vs expected 470

Value: 1,173Expected: 470.0
+2.4
80d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 1175, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 1,175Expected: 669.0
+1.1
80d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1166, elevated vs expected 475

Value: 1,166Expected: 475.0
+2.3
80d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 1148, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 1,148Expected: 657.5
+1.2
80d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1172, elevated vs expected 490

Value: 1,172Expected: 490.0
+2.0
80d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 1172, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 1,172Expected: 625.0
+1.5
80d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1192, elevated vs expected 487

Value: 1,192Expected: 487.0
+2.0
80d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 1148, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 1,148Expected: 640.0
+1.3
80d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1140, elevated vs expected 520

Value: 1,140Expected: 520.0
+1.7
81d ago·driftnormal

NOAA weighted alert score 1103, within normal range for US weather activity

Value: 1,103Expected: 748.0
+0.8
81d ago·normaldrift

NOAA alert score 1110, elevated vs expected 708

Value: 1,110Expected: 708.0
+1.7